On election day in Guadalajara, multicolored umbrellas peppered the polling places, offering a slight respite from the 98-degree heat as people waited hours to vote. With record level turnout, Claudia Sheinbaum, a climate scientist and former mayor of Mexico City, won the presidency with around 60 percent of the vote. Following months of electoral unrest, her election as president marks a crucial juncture for Mexico.
Sheinbaum’s election is historic, being both the first female and the first Jewish president of Mexico. Globally recognized for her environmental research and advocacy, she participated in the U.N.’s International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a team that received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007. Sheinbaum defeated leading opponent Xóchitl Gálvez, who represented the Fuerza y Corazón (Strength and Heart) party, a political rebrand of the former conservative-leaning ruling parties the PRI and the PAN, and the former leftwing party the PRD.
“The idea that the presidency has been won by a female candidate for the first time in the history of Mexico breaks a paradigm, a narrative of representation,” Sofia Villalba Laborde, an Uruguayan lawyer, feminist activist, and a Ph.D. candidate at the University of Sciences and Arts in the Mexican state of Chiapas, tells The Progressive.
In a country where around ten women are murdered every day, Sheinbaum’s election offers a glimmer of hope for the feminist movement. “I believe that [Sheinbaum] will certainly continue with the politics of non-repression [towards the feminist movement],” says Gustavo Castro, a Mexican activist and coordinator of Otros Mundos, a non-profit organization working to defend the environment and Indigenous territories in Chiapas.
“[Sheinbaum will] possibly reinforce some public policies to have more guarantee of zero impunity regarding violence against women and femicides. But I don’t think that her policies will reduce femicides . . . . Regardless of the government, [femicides] are unfortunately present [on a] daily basis,” notes Castro.
In Mexico, gender based violence is deeply rooted in organized crime, Castro added. “It is impossible to think that a government [in] a six-year term . . . can eliminate the narco-state that has been generated over forty years.”
Sylvan Bachhuber
Voters in Guadalajara, Mexico line up under the hot sun, using umbrellas for shade as they wait to cast their ballots in the 98-degree heat on June 2, 2024.
In the months leading up to the election, tensions were high in Mexico. A record thirty-nine political candidates have been assassinated since last June, with at least twenty-eight of these assassinations found to be linked to criminal organizations. On the day of the election, communities across the country continued to feel the weight of this cartel violence.
In Chiapas, polls could not be opened in two municipalities because of extreme threats of violence. “The Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación is . . . in a very strong and very violent confrontation with the Sinaloa Cartel. They control all political, social, and economic life,” says Castro. “So, the cancellation of the municipal polling stations is due to these conflicts over drug trafficking.”
The situation in Chiapas is emblematic of the broader challenges facing Mexico. Violence and corruption are major concerns for the Mexican people, exacerbated by the pervasive violence and the influence of powerful drug cartels. On election day, the atmosphere was charged with distrust, with neighborhood children yelling, “vote for anyone except for MORENA,” and a woman in line at one polling place angrily accusing poll workers of being part of a corruption scheme on behalf of the MORENA political party.
Under the leadership of the outgoing president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (known as AMLO), the MORENA party has faced allegations of connections to the cartels, causing widespread distrust of elected officials. Critics argue that these alleged links compromise the integrity of the party and its commitment to combating corruption. However, these claims have been refuted for their lack of substantial evidence. Despite the denials, the perception of corruption persists, fueled by ongoing violence and a complex interplay of local and national politics.
“The truth is, I doubt that AMLO has had [connections to narco groups], and when he was accused of [corruption], no evidence was ever provided,” says Castro. “But I do believe that there are relationships [between the government and cartels] . . . at the municipal and state level.”
He continues, “It is very likely that [local] governments are going to have to negotiate and reach agreements with the cartels, because they have a lot of power.”
AMLO sought to combat the violence and corruption associated with drug trafficking through a combination of social programs and increased military oversight across the country. Sheinbaum is poised to continue in the same direction. Castro predicts that the next six years will be a continuation of MORENA’s “anti-neoliberal” political path.
Sylvan Bachhuber
Salvador Gonzalez Ramirez proudly displays his ink-stained thumb after casting his vote in Guadalajara, Mexico on June 2, 2024.
During his term as president, AMLO was widely praised for his welfare programs in the areas of public health, education, and food sovereignty. These have included the construction of public hospitals and universities, the expansion of student scholarships, an increase in the minimum wage, and the establishment of programs to support Mexican farmers and fishermen.
Castro also noted that while MORENA’s “anti-neoliberal policies will continue, capitalist projects will also continue and grow.” These projects include the building of infrastructure like the controversial Train Maya to attract tourism and foreign investments, increasing the domestic production of petroleum, and expanding mining projects. The continuation of extractive megaprojects “will also mean a dispute over peasant and Indigenous territories,” explains Castro.
“To come to Chiapas and wear a flower crown and a huipil from [the village of] Zinacantan and take a photo with an Indigenous woman doesn’t mean that [Sheinbaum’s] political project has a decolonial basis,” says Laborde. “There’s a part of Sheinbaum’s political project that includes militarization, for example. And in some aspects, she has a very punitive vision. In the field of anti-punitive feminism, [authoritarianism] is something that we question quite a bit.”
A main characteristic of AMLO’s term has been the militarization of the country, having passed legislation to transfer control of the country’s National Guard to the country’s military. Subsequently, the National Guard was also given responsibility over the administration of major ports and airports, and immigration enforcement, and was tasked with overseeing the construction of AMLO’s many megaprojects. In total, AMLO increased the Army’s budget by 22 percent and the Navy’s budget by 17 percent.
Castro comments that the militarization of Mexico, and many other Latin American countries, is “a reflection on the scale of the Narco-State that we’re living in. If [the situation wasn’t so extreme], there wouldn’t be this level of militarization.” However, he emphasizes, “militarization is always a threat to democracy.”
Immigration will be another difficult issue during Sheinbaum’s presidency. Biden’s recent executive order preventing migrants from seeking asylum inside the United States will likely lead to more challenges in Mexico, as thousands of asylum seekers will be forced to await their immigration trials in Mexico.
“Immigration is another super complicated issue that’s very difficult to address, seeing that these are problems that are not generated [in Mexico] but in other countries,” says Castro. “And the great challenge for [Sheinbaums’s] government is how they are going to treat [arriving immigrants], how they are going to serve them, and how they are going to guarantee their human rights.”
AMLO’s administration worked alongside the United States to block the path for migrants by transporting large numbers of people from northern to southern Mexico. During her campaign, Sheinbaum spoke very little about the issue of immigration, leaving her stance unclear. However, "If she opposes Mexico's cooperation with the US on border security, experts fear economic consequences from the United States.
Despite the challenges, Claudia Sheinbaum's presidency represents a significant shift in Mexican politics. She steps into office on October 1 with the country standing at a crossroads, grappling with issues of violence, corruption, and the legacy of her predecessor’s policies. While her election brings hope for progress in anti-neoliberal social reforms, the road ahead will test her administration’s ability to address deep-rooted problems.
“Obviously, I celebrate that a leftist government has won political power, and obviously I celebrate that the first woman president has been elected,” says Laborde. “But it would be much more interesting to see a political project that contemplated anti-militarization, anti-punitivism, and decolonization in a deeper way.”