In runoff elections held on October 15, Ecuadorians elected Daniel Noboa to the presidency. These elections occurred amid the worsening of security and one of the worst economic crises Ecuador has ever seen.
Asamblea Nacional, CC BY-SA 2.0
Daniel Naboa during a debate in the National Assembly, Quito, Ecuador, April 2022.
Noboa, a thirty-five-year-old politically inexperienced conservative, campaigned as an outsider candidate who promised to improve the economy by creating more jobs. Noboa won more than 52 percent of the vote, and his progressive rival Luisa González, an ally of former Ecuadorian president Rafael Correa who ran on increasing social programs, won about 48 percent of the vote.
“From tomorrow, Daniel Noboa starts work as your new president,” Noboa declared to supporters in his victory speech. “Tomorrow, we start work for this new Ecuador, we start working to rebuild a country seriously battered by violence, by corruption, and by hate.”
Noboa has become the youngest president to preside over the South American country in modern history. He will fill out the remainder of the term of President Guillermo Lasso serving for only a year and half ahead of the scheduled 2025 presidential elections.
Snap elections were called in Ecuador following a prolonged political crisis.
Snap elections were called in Ecuador following a prolonged political crisis brought about by the neoliberal policies of the Lasso administration. Throughout his term, Lasso’s policies had led to widespread protests by Indigenous activists and mass mobilizations calling for his resignation.
The outrage culminated in May of this year, when Lasso dissolved the country’s national assembly. At the time, the congress was in the process of impeaching him over accusations of corruption. Lasso made the move through a constitutional measure known as “mutual death” and put the elections in motion in order to avoid impeachment.
Yet these unpopular policies are likely to continue under the new administration.
Noboa is the heir of a banana empire owned by his father Álvaro Noboa Pontón, Ecuador’s richest man who, himself, has run for the presidency on five different occasions. According to María del Carmen Villarreal Villamar, an Ecuadorian researcher at the Brazilian Latitude Sul Platform, in spite of being an outsider candidate, Noboa’s connections with his father’s company mean he is likely to continue to pursue the neoliberal agenda, which has contributed to the decrease of role of the state in social programs in Ecuador.
“[Noboa] spent his entire life working in the Noboa Corporation, which is one of the main economic groups in Ecuador that has promoted neoliberal policies: the reduction of the state and the reduction of public investment,” Villarreal Villamar tells The Progressive. “This is precisely what Ecuador is doing right now. The country does not need to reduce. The country requires more public investment, it requires better public policies, it requires attention, it requires a security strategy.”
These policies are likely to continue, stoking the continuation of the crisis.
In recent years, Ecuador has faced a worsening multidimensional crisis that was exasperated by the COVID-19 pandemic and the rise of organized crime. Poverty and violent crime have increased in recent years, quickly transforming Ecuador from one of the safest countries in Latin America into one of the most violent. According to Villarreal Villamar, the dollarization of the economy is among the key factors that has permitted the rise of organized crime. Added to this, neoliberal austerity policies have stripped back the state, leaving a void.
As the new administration begins, these policies are likely to continue, stoking the continuation of the crisis.
“Neoliberal policies do not work, they have not worked,” Villarreal Villamar says. “So to repeat them with the same recipe [and to expect different results] is difficult. To function you need to think about security, think about the economy, of course, but think about comprehensive strategies that do not forget social justice.”
This security crisis overshadowed the elections, especially following the surprise assassination of presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio in the lead up to the first round of voting in August 2023. But as Ecuador awaits the new administration, tens of thousands have sought to seek opportunities abroad by migrating north.
“Ecuadorians are the second [highest number] nationality behind Venezuelans crossing the Darién Gap,” Villarreal Villamar says. “This reflects how difficult the context is in Ecuador, especially with the rise in poverty and structural problems.”
Ecuadorians have been forced to take the dangerous route through the jungles of the Darién Gap, which separates Panama and Colombia in recent years. Hundreds of thousands of migrants, including tens of thousands of Ecuadorians, are estimated to pass through the route in 2023 alone.
The current wave of migration from Ecuador reflects a difference from previous eras.
Like Venezuelans and Haitians, this has become the required route for those seeking to reach the United States after the U.S. government pressured Mexico and countries in Central America to strengthen visa regimes. Previously, these nations had looser visa restrictions, which had provided migrants a shorter, safer route traveling by air.
But the current wave of migration from Ecuador reflects a difference from previous eras.
“In other migration waves they were more motivated by social economic reasons, not poverty,” Villarreal Villamar says. “In this new wave, we see people fleeing because of the levels of insecurity and because in recent years the country has had ineffective governments; governments that have not given importance to meeting the basic needs of the population.”