On August 9, Fernando Villavicencio, an Ecuadorian presidential candidate, was assassinated as he left a rally in Quito, the capital of the South American country.
Cristian Cagua / National Assembly/CC by SA2.0
Fernando Villavicencio as a member of the National Assembly of Ecuador debating electoral law reform on January 25, 2023.
Villavicencio was a fifty-nine-year-old former journalist who previously served in the country’s national assembly. He was known for his staunch anti-corruption platform and for speaking out against the spread of drug cartels. He had reported receiving death threats since at least 2021.
A criminal group known as Los Lobos has taken credit for the assassination in a video published on social media. But shortly afterward, another video was uploaded by a group calling itself “The Real Los Lobos” and denying they were responsible for the killing.
In response, Ecuador’s President Guillermo Lasso declared a sixty-day state of emergency, suspending constitutional rights, such as the right of assembly and deploying the police and military.
The murder of Villavicencio comes less than two weeks before the country was set to elect the next president, and amid an increase in violence. According to Marc Becker, a professor of Latin American history at Truman State University in Kirksville, Missouri, and an expert on Ecuador, this trend could provide a rallying call for right and far-right candidates. “With the death of Villavicencio there is the concern that it raises [calls for a form of] mano dura [heavy-handed] politics in which a rightwing candidate emerges,” Becker tells The Progressive. “But Ecuadorians are not falling so captive to this rightwing rhetoric”
As Ecuador has seen an increase in violent crime, there have been increasing calls from the right for the country to adopt a similar model to that of President Nayib Bukele in El Salvador for combating the rise in crime.
As Ecuador has seen an increase in violent crime, there have been increasing calls from the right for the country to adopt a similar model to that of President Nayib Bukele in El Salvador for combating the rise in crime.
Since March 2022, Bukele has used a long-term state of emergency in order to permit police and the military to crack down on gangs. His measures have resulted in widespread human rights abuses, accusations of torture, and denying innocent people the right to due process. In July 2023, El Salvador’s congress, which is controlled by Bukele’s Nuevas Ideas (New Ideas) Party, approved reforms that will permit mass trials of up to 900 people accused of gang affiliation.
Across Latin America, governments have been drawn to Bukele’s example, suggesting they too could adopt a heavy-handed crackdown on criminal groups. In Guatemala, for example, presidential candidate Sandra Torres has stated that she plans to emulate Bukele.
Ecuador has seen a sharp increase in violent crime in recent years, with homicides rising by 300 percent between 2017 and 2022. This rise is largely blamed on organized crime groups that have emerged in recent years.
While the assassination of a presidential candidate highlights growing public insecurity in Ecuador, the country is also facing a prolonged political and economic crisis—largely due to President Lasso’s neoliberal economic policies, which have only deepened inequality.
Joselito Bolaños/National Assembly/C.C. by S.A. 2.0
Fernando Villavicencio addressing the National Assembly in April 2022.
Lasso’s policies have led to widespread protests by Indigenous activists and mass mobilizations calling for his resignation. The outrage culminated in May of this year, when Lasso dissolved the country’s national assembly, which was in the process of impeaching him over accusations of corruption. Lasso made the move through a constitutional measure known as “mutual death” and put in motion the election set for August 20. The result was that he avoided impeachment.
“[It was a ] failure of Lasso’s neoliberal economic model that [he] had been campaigning on for twenty years,” Becker says. “He comes into power and he can't do what he promised.”
The economic downturn has resulted in a wave of migration from Ecuador.
While the pattern is not entirely new, since the COVID-19 pandemic, Ecuadorians have increasingly sought to leave the country in the hopes of reaching the United States, Canada, or nearby Peru or Colombia.
The economic downturn has resulted in a wave of migration from Ecuador.
It is not an easy journey, especially as Ecuadorians have faced new visa regimes along the route. In September 2021, both Mexico and Guatemala issued new requirements for Ecuadorians, stating that they must first obtain a visa before entering the country, in order to stem irregular migration.
As a result of these visa regimes, Ecuatorians are among the hundreds of thousands that take the dangerous path through the Darien Gap, which separates Colombia and Panama.
Deportations of Ecuadorians from the United States have become common in recent years, with the United States’ Immigrations and Customs Enforcement contracting twenty deportation flights to Ecuador last year, according to data from Witness At the Border.
But according to Tom Cartwright, an immigration rights activist with Witness At the Border, there has been a significant drop in the number of deportation flights per month in 2023, falling from thirty in January to just four flights in July. Yet in spite of the recent assassination, the flights have continued, with one arriving in Ecuador the day following the killing, Cartwright tells The Progressive.
Yet, as Cartwright also points out, this decrease in flights is contrasted with the number of encounters by border agents. According to United States Customs and Border Protection reporting, agents have encountered an average of 8,672 Ecuadorians per month in fiscal year 2023, with a high of 16,304 encounters in December 2022.
With the continued crisis at home, people continue to seek refuge abroad.
Despite the unstable conditions in Ecuador, migrants face challenges obtaining asylum in the United States. According to research from Austin Kocher at Syracuse University, 74.5 percent of asylum requests by Ecuadorains are denied.
With the continued crisis at home, people continue to seek refuge abroad.
“Lasso said he would create two million jobs and he never did that,” Becker explained. “It is the direct result of the failure of neoliberal policies to provide a livable wage for people to live. This comes particularly in comparison with the memories of [the administration of Rafael] Correa, when the economy was booming, there were more educational opportunities, more investment and infrastructure, and more jobs.”
He adds, “People end up throwing in the towel and going where there are more possibilities.”