AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken accompanied by from left; Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, White House Homeland Security Advisor Liz Sherwood-Randal, and Deputy Secretary of State for Management and Resources Richard Verma, speaks during a Migration meeting with Mexico's Foreign Secretary Alicia Bárcena Ibarra and Guatemala's Foreign Minister Carlos Ramiro Martinez at the U.S. Department of State in Washington, D.C. on February 28, 2024.
The administration of Bernardo Arévalo in Guatemala signed an agreement with Mexico and the United States to continue efforts to crack down on irregular migration through the Central American nation.
The trilateral agreement was signed during a February 28 meeting in Washington, D.C., between representatives of the United States’ southern neighbors and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken. The agreement stipulates that the governments of the region will address the “root causes” of migration from Central America, combat human trafficking, and address inadequacies in Guatemala’s shared borders with Mexico, Honduras, and El Salvador.
“The three delegations also committed to establish an operationally focused trilateral working group which will work to improve security, law enforcement, processes, and infrastructure along their international borders,” the statement announcing the agreement read. “Law enforcement authorities from the three countries will work together to identify security gaps, share information, and develop coordinated operational plans.”
The meeting and agreement represent the continuation of efforts by the United States government and previous administrations in Guatemala to control the country’s borders in response to the massive migration north in recent years. Yet this time the agreement is being made with an administration that seeks to have a close relationship with the Biden Administration, especially given the United States’ assistance in defending Guatemala’s fragile democracy in 2023.
“The United States Embassy was waiting for the new government to arrive into office,” Ursula Roldán, a migration expert at Rafael Landivar University in Guatemala City, tells The Progressive. “The new government, I believe, is favorable [for the U.S.] for the processes of recuperating [the country’s] institutionality.”
On March 5, just days after the meeting in Washington, Guatemala’s Immigration Institute presented a new immigration policy. The new policy emphasizes a dedication to orderly and secure immigration process, recognizing human rights, and addressing the causes of migration.
“It is not threatening for the policy of the United States but it is not negative for the case of migration in Guatemala either,” Roldán says. “Because it has emphasis on local development in inter-institutional coordination and does not leave out border security.”
The new policy comes as Guatemala has increasingly become a transitional country for migrants en route to the United States. Guatemala has seen an increase in migrants from African nations and China passing through the country heading north.
Ahead of the meeting, Guatemala once again blocked the passage of a caravan of hundreds migrants that left from Honduras seeking to pass through Guatemala on January 20. But the response to the caravan marks a difference from the previous administration, which utilized armed forces to disperse caravans, with immigration officials working with police to ensure the respect for visa requirements for entering the country.
According to Roldán, the new policies represent a shift—seeking to address the insecurity the region has seen in migratory routes, but not fully shying away from border security. She also points out that the heavy handed measures have favored networks that traffic migrants.
“It gives a change of narrative, it gives a change in the type of actions where policies are combined that address the origin, transit, and destination with human security more than before,” she explained. “Those who were benefiting within networks of irregular migration are the trafficking networks.”
Guatemala remains a country that is seeing massive migration from Central America. This is evidenced by the historic levels of deportations from the United States.
The United States has sent 114 ICE-chartered deportation flights back to Guatemala, carrying a total of 13,767 Guatemalans, in the first two months of 2024. An additional 5,188 Guatemalans were deported from Mexico via chartered flights and bussed deportations during the same period.
In comparison, 12,446 Guatemalans were deported from both the United States and Mexico in the first two months of 2023.
In total, 55,302 Guatemalans were deported by the United States in 2023. Another 24,395 Guatemalans were deported by the Mexican government on either buses or charter flights.
The trilateral agreement also specified efforts to expand opportunities in Guatemala through increased investment and programs to permit immigration for seasonal work. But investments in countries of origin do not always work and are not always sufficient due to Guatemala’s extremely low minimum wage.
“It is not only investment in the [country of] origin, but also [permitting migrants to work] because what we need is balance,” Roldán says. “The United States needs a workforce, and there is a workforce here that will not be incorporated here in the short term into the labor market.”
Roldán says that what should exist is a form of circular migration that permits Guatemalans to travel to work in the United States before returning home.
Guatemala does not have a national minimum wage, but a minimum wage dictated by the region, with people in the Guatemala City area working in non-agricultural work earning 3,634.59 Quetzales, or roughly $465 dollars, per month, while people living in the rest of the country also working in non-agricultural labor earn 3,477.82 Quetzales, or roughly $445 dollars, per month.
Agricultural work earns around 100 Quetzales less each month.
Often, companies do not meet even minimum wage; those in the informal market earn far less. Furthermore, minimum wage does not meet cost of living, with it being estimated that a family of five must earn 10,243 Quetzales, or $1,312.00 dollars, per month to live.
“How are we going to compare salaries here with those [in the United States]?” Roldán asks. “That is why we are betting on circular migration . . . . Remittances do alleviate poverty in the communities of origin, perhaps not for the entire country, although they do benefit the macro economy.”
In 2023, migrants from Guatemala living abroad sent home nearly $20 billion in remittances. The majority of remittances are spent toward consumption, benefiting the country’s gross domestic product.
However, this type of proposal will not fly given the current political discourse around immigration in the United States.
“Democrats are sadly losing [the immigration debate],” Roldán laments. “They are losing in the sense that those who are imposing the narrative are the Republicans and the Democrats are behind that narrative, which means that they also want to impose security on the borders.”
She adds, “Democrats could start a narrative that [shares the experiences of] churches that have received migrants, because they know how important immigrants are.”