CNN
A new poll of New Hampshire Democratic primary voters found that the current leading preference is . . . drum roll please . . . not anyone currently running for President!
Instead, 26 percent of voters said they would favor Michelle Obama, followed by Warren and Biden, each at 20 percent.
Another poll out of Iowa from the great Ann Selzer is more illuminating. It is a measure of first choice, second choice, and “actively considering.” In this “candidate footprint,” there are five candidates that garner support from more than 50 percent: U.S. Senators Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, and Elizabeth Warren, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and former Vice President Joe Biden.
A second group of three candidates are at around 40 percent—former U.S. Representative Beto O'Rourke and U.S. Senators Cory Booker and Amy Klobuchar.
Any of these eight candidates have a reasonable path to the nomination and even “third tier” dwellers at around 20 percent—former U.S. Housing Secretary Julián Castro, U.S. Representative Tulsi Gabbard, and entrepreneurs Andrew Yang and Tom Steyer—still could pop.
Translation: Voters are still kicking tires and are far from deciding what they want to drive off the lot.
Historically speaking, Biden still has the inside lane. In the modern era, Dems have never not nominated a former Vice President seeking the nomination. Yet the apparent goal of last night’s debate—among fellow candidates, moderators, and pundits afterward, was to knock the new polling front-runner, Elizabeth Warren, off the top. Recent numbers put Warren ahead of Biden and Sanders, and she has also edged in slightly in front in the crucial early states of Iowa and New Hampshire.
The most popular attack line on Warren was that she was, in Biden’s words, “being vague” when it came to her Medicare for All plans.
One of the questioners, New York Times national editor Mark Lacey, fired this loaded question at Warren:
“Senator Warren, we’ve proposed—you’ve proposed some sweeping plans, free public college, free universal child care, eliminating most Americans’ college debt. And you’ve said how you’re going to pay for those plans. But you have not specified how you’re going to pay for the most expensive plan, Medicare for All. Will you raise taxes on the middle class to pay for it, yes or no?”
Warren furtively obfuscated with a long-winded non-answer and Klobuchar went for the throat, accusing Warren of dishonesty:
“At least Bernie’s being honest here and saying how he’s going to pay for this and that taxes are going to go up. And I’m sorry, Elizabeth, but you have not said that, and I think we owe it to the American people to tell them where we’re going to send the invoice.”
Sanders said, for a cringeworthy second time, that he “wrote the damn bill!” and Warren tried to play rope-a-dope all night.
This would have been a good time for Warren or Sanders to say, “Yes, let’s take a look at that invoice…” and say something pithy like, “first line reads middle class pays half of what they were paying for health care, bottomline reads, middle class has more money in their pocket.”
Instead, Sanders said, for a cringeworthy second time, that he “wrote the damn bill!” and Warren tried to play rope-a-dope all night. It is simply baffling that in all of the hours of debate prep that doubtlessly went into last night’s event, no one in either the Warren or Sanders camp came up with a snappy response to what they knew would be the single biggest general campaign issue.
After the debate, CNN anchor Jake Tapper cut through the muck in an interview with Klobuchar: “Come on, can we just say it? Warren didn’t want to say she was raising taxes, but that those taxes would be more than offset from not having to pay health care costs, because she’s afraid if she’s the nominee it will end up in a ‘raising taxes’ Republican ad.”
Meanwhile, the debate moderators seemed focused on made-for-TV moments by asking trolling questions (“What do you say to those who fear that impeachment is a distraction?”) and constantly interjecting that candidates’ time had expired.
Despite this, most of the candidates advanced their cause and had mostly positive stand-out moments:
Biden: Except for his “cutting coupons” word salad moment that looks much worse in next-day social media clips, he came off quite well. Like Yogi Berra, we knew what he was saying even if he wasn’t saying it, but how many people will just see that one gaffe?
Sanders: With the exception of repeating a line from an earlier debate, he looked and sounded like Bernie circa 2016. With Warren seemingly trying to run the clock out, Sanders, arteries unblocked, has plenty of time to make a come back with the liberal wing of the party.
Booker: He positioned himself as the peacemaker, on several occasions coming to the defense of Warren, Biden, and others, winning warm applause from the Democrats in the audience.
Buttigieg: Mayor Pete took a decidedly more assertive tone this debate, at one point pushing back against Beto for suggesting he and the other moderates on stage weren’t showing courage when it came to mandatory assault-rifle buy-backs, saying, “I don't need lessons from you on courage, political or private.” Mr. Rogers, meet Mr. T!
Gabbard: Like other candidates, she struggled to get a word in edgewise, but did win a door prize for saying “regime change war” the most times in the debate.
Castro: Last debate, he came off as the obnoxious guy bullying old Uncle Joe; this debate, he stayed above the fray.
Steyer: An unmemorable performance, but he does get props for bringing up the climate change crisis, which was mostly neglected.
Yang: He did a better job of letting his humor shine through tonight, including this gem, “It’s not like any of us wants to use the fourth best navigation app. That would be like cruel and unusual punishment. There is a reason why no one is using Bing today.”
Harris: Her demand that Warren agree with her on the need to ban Trump from Twitter didn’t cast her in a good light, but she upped the ante on Beto’s gun buyback plan, by saying she’d ban assault weapons via executive order if Congress failed to act in 100 days. The heads exploding at Fox News could be seen from space.
Warren: Despite nearly everyone coming after her, she did a good job of being the front runner by not making a mistake. Still, the Iowa Caucuses are three months away and Warren’s narrow lead in Iowa and New Hampshire could fall from trying too hard not to say something that might appear in a Republican attack ad.
It’s way too early to try and run out the clock.