Ryan Schmitz
An abandoned dairy farm in Wisconsin. Trump's trade wars are a major reason why the Dairy State led the nation in farm bankruptcies last year.
“They’ve systematically sucked the blood out of America—sucked the blood out!”
That was Donald Trump, then an unsuccessful real-estate operator propped up by his father, tax evasion, and repeated bankruptcies, speaking in 1989, shortly after he toyed with running for President the first time.
The subject of Trump’s venting wasn’t China or Mexico, but . . . Japan. He went on to say, “They have ended up winning the war”—in reference to World War II.
In 2016, Trump made the trade deficit a central issue in his successful campaign. Although President Barack Obama had managed to decrease this deficit by about $80 billion from when he took office, Trump promised change in this area—“not Obama change, real change.”
“We can turn it around and we can turn it around fast,” he claimed.
Since taking office, Trump has indeed made trade a top priority. But he’s found that, while it’s easy to blow up previous deals and cause disruptions with tariffs and sanctions, actually making “the best deals” and eliminating the trade deficit hasn’t materialized.
In fact, things have gotten much worse under Trump. The trade deficit of goods has gone from $735 billion in Obama’s last year to $875 billion last year—about a 20 percent increase and the highest trade deficit in our nation’s history.
While Trump will tell you some variation of “you’ve got to break some eggs to make an omelette,” he’s only succeeded in breaking eggs to make massive trade disruptions.
When Trump decided to slap a 25 percent tariff on steel and 10 percent on aluminum imported from Mexico and Canada, Mexico retaliated with new tariffs on products exported by the United States.
The timing couldn’t have been worse, especially considering Mexico is the United States’ #1 dairy export destination. For a variety of reasons, dairy farmers here in Wisconsin and throughout the country have suffered from low prices since 2014. Having to suffer through Trump’s trade disruptions—not only with Mexico, but the #2 dairy market (China) as well—has been like shooting a drowning man begging for a life raft.
This has been a major reason why Wisconsin led the nation in farm bankruptcies last year.
And to what end? Before his recent threat to renew tariffs with Mexico, Trump had claimed the new NAFTA agreed to with Mexico and Canada was a “historic document” that “will be fantastic for all!”
But U.S. Representative Mark Pocan, Democrat of Wisconsin, chair of the House Progressive Caucus, and a longtime NAFTA critic, has called the deal only “marginally better.”
“I might call it NAFTA 1.5. It’s not what the President has explained as this complete revamp of trade in the northern hemisphere.”
“[Calling it NAFTA 2.0] might be a bit too generous,” he said in a recent interview. “I might call it NAFTA 1.5. It’s not what the President has explained as this complete revamp of trade in the northern hemisphere.”
Pocan added that without removal of “huge give-aways to big pharma” and “more labor provisions,” the deal is unlikely to pass the Democrat-controlled House.
In other words, at the apparent conclusion of just one front of Trump’s trade wars, all the blood lost in farm bankruptcies has been for a “marginally” different trade deal that probably won’t get passed anyway.
There is no evidence that, beyond theatrical race-baiting and nationalist chest-thumping, Trump has accomplished a single thing in the area of trade.
Then again, for this President, race-baiting and chest-thumping is all he’s ever aimed for.