Honduras has officially severed diplomatic relations with Taiwan, further isolating the island as more nations move to strengthen ties with Beijing.
The March 25 announcement comes nearly a week after Honduran president Xiomara Castro said her administration is officially seeking to open diplomatic relations with China. The break with Taiwan fulfills a campaign promise made by Castro in 2021.
“We have to look at things very pragmatically and seek the best benefit for the Honduran people,” Honduran Foreign Minister Eduardo Reina said on local television, reported Reuters.
Reina cited economic factors as a reason for the move, but according to Taiwanese officials, the break occurred after Honduras had sought $2.45 billion dollars for building a hospital, a hydroelectric project, and various debt write-offs.
“As the number of countries supporting Taiwan diminishes, they are trying to get more out of them,” Bruno Binetti, a Ph.D. candidate at the London School of Economics and expert on Chinese-Latin American relations, tells The Progressive.
“In terms of trends, this is almost inevitable,” he explained. “The reasons why these countries kept recognizing Taiwan over China became harder and harder to justify as the Chinese economy grew.”
The move will reduce the countries that still recognize Taiwan from fourteen to thirteen. Those who continue to recognize Taiwan are a collection of small countries, including Guatemala, Paraguay, Belize, and Haiti, all of which have little to no influence on the international stage.
But the negotiations between Honduras and China did not materialize overnight, rather the parties were in discussion as far back as the administration of Porfirio Lobo from 2010 to 2014, Julio Raudales, a Honduran economist and current rector at the private José Cecilio del Valle University in Comayagua, tells The Progressive. During the final days of his administration in 2022, president Juan Orlando Hernández had threatened to move to open diplomatic relations with China if the Trump Administration did not provide more aid to the Central American nation.
The United States and Taiwan both quickly responded and denounced the move by Honduran diplomats to side with China. U.S. Senator Bill Cassidy, Republican of Louisiana, took to Twitter to condemn the move, suggesting that it will bring suffering to the Honduran people. The vocal condemnation of the opening of diplomatic relations with China by various countries has increased in recent years, marking a shift in how Washington interacts with the region.
“It used to be more discreet,” Binetti says. “The United States had its reservations about countries switching recognition, but ultimately, the United States has [also] recognized China since 1978.”
He adds, “It’s very hard for the United States to justify why it wants these countries to stay with Taiwan beyond narrow American interests.”
During negotiations between Honduras and China, the United States Department of State issued warnings to Honduras, and according to Reuters, China’s promises are “often empty.” Yet the examples of Chinese investment and trade from elsewhere in the hemisphere challenge Washington’s narrative.
For countries in Latin America, opening relations with China opens new markets for exports and new financial markets for investment. China has made billions of dollars annually available for loans to the region, and according to a Reuters report, Honduran Deputy Foreign Minister Antonio Garcia feels opening relations with China could lead to $10 billion of investment in the Central American country.
“It’s very hard for the United States to justify why it wants these countries to stay with Taiwan beyond narrow American interests.”
But as Margaret Myers, the director of the Asia and Latin America program at the group Inter-American Dialogue in Washington, D.C., points out, the results of these Chinese-funded projects may vary.
“It’s not always purely beneficial,” she tells The Progressive. “There are challenges associated with carrying out some of the projects that are announced.”
As the geopolitical stage has increasingly moved to a multipolar global economic and political system, Washington has maintained a Cold War-era unipolar position, which limits Central American countries from accessing a variety of opportunities.
Added to this, the region is undergoing a shift in political powers, where the old political elites are being replaced. As Binetti points out, as the old powers who had built relations with Taiwan in the context of the Cold War are replaced, the new economic opportunities that come from China make political sense.
“Politics are shifting,” Binetti says. “Opposition parties don’t owe Taiwan anything. They don’t have that long-standing relationship with Taiwan, and it’s almost natural that they are going to try to shift to China because there’s nothing in it for them.”
Following the announcement by Honduran officials, the Ministry of Foreign Relations in neighboring Guatemala issued a press statement reiterating their commitment to maintaining diplomatic relations with Taiwan. A spokesperson for the ministry stated in the country’s Foreign Relations press Whatsapp group that “Guatemala only recognizes one China, and that is Taiwan.”
The foreign ministry of Guatemala said they will also assist in protecting Taiwanese assets and diplomats in Honduras during the transition. The announcement was met by support from officials such as U.S. Senator Cassidy. Honduran officials have given the Taiwanese embassy thirty days to vacate their building.
Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen, who ran as a pro-independence candidate, took office in 2016. Since then his government has seen former allies increasingly move towards China—with Panama, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Nicaragua, and now Honduras breaking diplomatic relations with Taiwan in favor of China.
President Tsai is set to visit allies in Guatemala and Belize following the most recent announcement by Honduras.
Guatemala has stated that they will host a “Friends of Taiwan” summit, which a spokesperson for the Guatemalan Ministry of Foreign Relations had stated is planned for May 2023.
“It is an important symbolic gesture,” Myers says about the summit. “These countries still stand to gain economically speaking and in terms of development from partnership with Taiwan.”
But Taiwan could find itself further isolated if the opposition wins the upcoming election in Paraguay, in which the Authentic Radical Liberal Party has also promised to open diplomatic relations with China. It seems only a matter of time until most of Taiwan’s remaining Latin American allies move towards China.
“[Countries] will continue to assess the situation,” Myers says “And no one wants to be last, then what leverage would they have.”