As the Trump Administration continues to support the vicious Saudi-led military intervention in Yemen, growing evidence indicates that its support is largely motivated by concerns about the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a narrow sea passage off Yemen’s western coast.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is one of the three most important oil trade chokepoints—narrow channels along widely used global sea routes—around the Arabian Peninsula. Although its place in the war has been largely ignored by the U.S. media, the strait has been a central factor in U.S. planning. Roughly five million barrels of oil and oil-based products pass through the strait on a daily basis, eventually making their way to Asia, Europe, and the United States.
Publicly, Trump Administration officials say very little about the strait, insisting they are simply looking for a way to end the war. They claim to be focused on helping the Saudi-led military coalition pressure Iranian-backed Houthi rebels into accepting a political deal that will return to power the government of exiled Yemeni President Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi.
Yet over the past year, Trump officials and analysts have repeatedly prioritized the strait in both strategic and military planning.
A recent report by the Congressional Research Service, for example, includes a section titled “Houthi threaten Commercial Shipping in the Red Sea.” The report, which maps the world’s major oil chokepoints, highlights the 4.8 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum liquids that passed through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on a daily basis in 2016.
The war in Yemen began in March 2015, when a Saudi-led military coalition attacked the Houthi rebels, who had taken over the western part of the country. Since the beginning of the intervention, the U.S. government supported the Saudi-led coalition with military advice, intelligence support, precision-guided munitions, and air-to-air refueling.
This has been devastating for the people of Yemen. The U.S.-backed Saudi-led coalition has killed thousands of civilians and caused a humanitarian crisis. More than 8 million people are facing starvation, more than 1 million people have contracted cholera, and more than 2,000 people have died of cholera.
“I’ve argued from the beginning that there is a U.S. imprint on every single civilian death inside Yemen,” Senator Chris Murphy, Democrat of Connecticut, has said. “I don’t think the Saudis would be conducting this level of atrocity if not for the support from the United States.” Additional U.S. officials have accused the U.S. government of complicity in both the killings of civilians and the humanitarian crisis.
“I’ve argued from the beginning that there is a U.S. imprint on every single civilian death inside Yemen.”
While the Trump Administration claims it is trying to end the conflict, its officials are clearly worried that a Houthi-led government will make it more difficult for oil tankers and other ships to pass through the area.
U.S. General Joseph Votel, the Commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) warned Congress in February that sixty to seventy ships pass through the strait every day, making any disruption “a very real threat that we have to pay attention to.” A month later, he told Congress that it was a priority for CENTCOM to keep the shipping lanes open. “We are principally focused on the ballistic missile threat and the maritime threat that plays out in the Bab el-Mandeb and in the Red Sea to the west of Yemen,” he said.
Secretary of Defense James Mattis has raised similar concerns, warning that shipping would be imperiled if “we don’t get this under control.”
The Trump Administration’s concerns are consistent with broader U.S. strategic priorities for the Middle East. President Trump has repeatedly mused about the possibility of taking the region’s oil, and establishment officials have voiced their commitments to keeping the region’s oil available to global oil markets.
About a year ago, former U.S. diplomat Eric Edelman told Congress that any disruptions in the global oil supply could be problematic for the U.S. economy. “This is especially true of the Middle East, which contains half of global proven oil reserves, accounts for one-third of oil production and exports, and is home to three of the world’s four biggest oil transit chokepoints,” he explained.
In July, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced that the Trump Administration would prevent disruptions. “The world should know that America is committed to keeping sea lanes open, to keep transit of oil available for the entire world,” he said.
These intentions clarify the reasons behind the Trump Administration’s military support for the Saudi-led coalition. The administration appears to prioritize the sliver of sea off the western coast of Yemen, where much of the region’s oil remains in transit.
Its support continues despite a recent spate of horrors, including deadly attacks on a fish market, a school bus, and fleeing civilians.
By prioritizing the Bab el-Mandeb strait for oil transit, the Trump Administration ensures that the war will continue and the Yemeni people will continue to die.
“The Bab el-Mandeb is open for business, as far as we're concerned,” General Votel recently remarked. “One of our key missions here is to ensure freedom of navigation, freedom of commerce, and we will continue to exercise that through the region.”
By prioritizing the security of the Bab el-Mandeb strait for oil transit, the Trump Administration ensures that the war will continue and that the Yemeni people will continue to die.