Authoritarianism continues to embed itself across Latin America, most recently in Venezuela following the country’s contested July 28 elections. Both Nicolás Maduro, who has maintained a grip on power since 2013, and opposition candidate Edmundo González declared victory in the elections, but the Maduro regime continues to refuse to release the vote tallies.
Across the country, angry Venezuelans have protested the results of the elections, which according to the opposition and international observers were fraudulent. But the regime, which still maintains deep support within the military, has met protesters with brutal repression.
According to observers, more than 1,200 people were arrested by the regime since the July 28 election, and at least twenty-five people have been killed. Others have found their passports annulled, raising concerns for observers, as obtaining passports in Venezuela has become a complicated process.
“These are targeted methods of repression,” Laura Dib, the Venezuela program director at the Washington Office on Latin America, tells The Progressive.
Faced with the international condemnation of the results of the election, Maduro has called for an audit of the contested vote. But as observers from the Carter Center point out, the audit will likely not be independent, as the country’s Supreme Court is largely made up of Maduro’s allies.
There were signs ahead of the election that a free and fair race would be unlikely. The regime violated the Barbados Agreements—which were signed in October 2023 and set up a roadmap for open elections—barring opposition candidates from running, and revoked the invitation for electoral observers from the European Union in May 2024.
“There were many obstacles that made it absolutely clear that these elections were not going to be fair,” Dib says. “Nonetheless, in a remarkable way the Venezuelan population showed over and over again their commitment to a democratic and peaceful route . . . . They wanted to participate in this election understanding and [were] very aware of the lack of democratic conditions to do so.”
International observers condemned the electoral process, particularly citing significant statistical concerns over the results, which were issued far quicker than in previous elections and granted Maduro a third term.
Among those who questioned the results and criticized the lack of transparency were observers from the Carter Center. More than a decade prior, the Carter Center praised the electoral process in Venezuela during the 2012 elections.
“Venezuela’s 2024 presidential election did not meet international standards of electoral integrity and cannot be considered democratic,” The Carter Center wrote in a press statement about the elections.
The electoral process, the statement continued, “ violated numerous provisions of its own national laws. The election took place in an environment of restricted freedoms for political actors, civil society organizations, and the media.”
Susan Melkisethian (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)
Demonstrators at the White House protesting against the Maduro regime, March 2019.
The United States initially recognized González as the victor of the contested election, but quickly took a more nuanced stance on its statement on the results. Maduro has quickly seen his support from neighboring progressive governments waver; Chile’s progressive President Gabriel Boric rejected the outcome of the fraudulent election.
“Chile does not recognize Maduro's self-proclaimed triumph,” Boric said in a press conference on August 7. “We do not trust the independence or impartiality of the current institutions in Venezuela.”
On July 29, Venezuela expelled the Chilean diplomatic corps and accused the Chilean government of “intervening” in internal affairs. Maduro also expelled the diplomatic representatives of Argentina, Costa Rica, Peru, Panama, the Dominican Republic, and Uruguay over their condemnation of the elections.
The progressive administrations of Brazil, Mexico, and neighboring Colombia have continued to maintain open lines to both the Venezuelan opposition and the Maduro regime. Though the three countries have jointly raised concerns with the results, they have stopped short of condemning the fraud.
“We call on the electoral authorities in Venezuela to move ahead quickly and let itemized ballot box level results be known publicly,” wrote the governments of Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia in a joint statement after a call between their presidents Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, and Gustavo Petro. “We reiterate our willingness to support dialogue efforts and the search for agreements that benefit the Venezuelan people.”
It is still to be seen if these three governments will raise the pressure on the regime if the official results are not made public.
“These countries continue to engage with Venezuela,” Dib says. “It should not be underestated; this is a moment for high level diplomacy rather than performative politics that can be hurtful.”
Maduro’s victory has been recognized by Cuba, Nicaragua, Bolivia, Honduras, Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and Syria.
The further consolidation of Maduro’s regime and the violent repression against the pro-democracy protesters will likely contribute to massive emigration that has been increasing in Venezuela since 2013.
Today it is estimated that more than seven million people have emigrated from Venezuela since Maduro started to consolidate his power.
“This authoritarian system saw massive protests in Venezuela in 2014 and in 2017 that were already beginning to push the Venezuelan population to leave due to the harsh repression,” María Gabriela Trompetero, a Venezuelan immigration researcher at the Bielefeld University in Germany, tells The Progressive. “But we have seen an increase in the last two years in the flows of Venezuelans from South America to the global north.”
But another major factor that has driven migration to the North is international sanctions, especially from the United States, against the Maduro regime. The economic consequences include the rise in cost of medicines and other necessities impacting the lives of Venezuelans.
Maduro has increasingly isolated Venezuela, breaking diplomatic relations with countries around the region. This places Venezuelan migrants in an increasingly dangerous situation as they seek to leave the country, often lacking the means to obtain documents to gain asylum in other countries.
“People are going to migrate in worse conditions,” Dib says. “There are less legal pathways in the region.”
The legal pathways for Venezuelan migrants have been closing. Most recently, the Biden Administration temporarily paused the sponsorship program to allow for legal pathways for migration from Venezuela, Cuba, Haiti, and Nicaragua due to concerns of fraud.
Regional changes in visa regimes have made the protection of Venezuelan migrants more precarious. They continue to face xenophobia and exclusion as they seek security.
“Right now we face a greater departure of people from Venezuela,” Trompetero says. “But there are not many countries or regularization policies or integration policies that have not advanced, despite the fact that we have already been dealing with Venezuelan migration for seven years.”