Fact-Checking the Miracle: From ‘Carnage’ to the ‘Best Economy and Jobs EVER’ in just 500 Days!

Just how accurate are Trump’s claims about jobs and income?

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In just 500 days, President Donald Trump has taken the United States from dark Inauguration Day “carnage” to “Best economy and Jobs EVER.” At least this is what he tweeted on June 4 to mark his 500th day in office.

A few days later, he tweeted this about the nation’s unemployment rate: “U.S.A. Jobs numbers are the BEST in 44 years.” He stated this again Wednesday night at his rally in Duluth, Minnesota, saying that “Unemployment claims are at a forty-four-year low.”

Let’s take a closer look at these two claims.

When Trump says we are seeing the best job numbers EVER, what he’s actually referring to can be explained simply by population growth. As the graph below shows, every post-World War II President could have claimed that more people are working now than any other time in American history—including President Obama, who did most of the heavy lifting of digging us out of the Great Recession.

Considering that today women are nearly as likely to be in the workforce as men, a huge increase from previous generations, this Trump victory lap becomes even more silly.

What about Trump’s claim that “job numbers” are the “BEST in 44 years”?

The “job numbers” he’s referring to is the unemployment rate, which is just one measure of our economy—and a somewhat limited one at that.

Trump knows this. In fact, candidate Trump dismissed the unemployment rate measure as “a phony number” and the “biggest joke there is in this country,” pointing out that it only counts people actively looking for work and not the millions who aren’t participating in the workforce but could be. “The number isn’t reflective,” he said. “I’ve seen numbers of 24 percent—I actually saw a number of 42 percent unemployment. Forty-two percent.”

While absurd, there was a grain of truth to Trump’s bombast. The unemployment rate is calculated by the Census’ Current Population Survey, which defines the “labor force” as anyone who says they are working or has “actively looked for work in the prior four weeks.” So there are more unemployed people not included in the labor force who have stopped looking for work.

But Trump missed the biggest flaw in the unemployment rate: In recent years, states have skewed the rate by making unemployment insurance benefits harder to get.

Wisconsin attorney and former unemployment judge Victor Forberger has pointed out that in their efforts to make their states “business friendly,” some governors have initiated unemployment “reform,” making it increasingly tougher for workers to get unemployment insurance benefits.

In Wisconsin, for example, Forberger says the state’s Department of Workforce Development “consistently denied about 26 percent of all claimants” before unemployment reforms took effect. Afterward, “cases being denied jumped to 38.47 percent.”

Forberger argues that people denied unemployment benefits are forced to take two or three low-wage service jobs as emergency stop-gap measures until they can find something better. On a national scale, this has the effect of showing millions of “extra people” as employed. Under previous unemployment benefit programs, many of these people would have been labeled unemployed, rather than underemployed. They would also have been receiving benefits and searching for a job that best matches their skills and desired pay level.

The percent of jobless workers who receive unemployment benefits, while boosted by post-Great Recession Federal programs, has dipped to “a record low” in recent years.

The Obama Administration attempted to fix the problem of low unemployment benefits, notes the National Employment Law Project. The President included basic unemployment benefit dispersal guidelines in his final budget, but this never came to pass with the Republican Congress.

Moreover, Trump’s claim that these are the “best jobs numbers in thirty-nine years” belies the fact that more than half of the jobs in America are still low wage, paying less than $18 an hour. The bottom 40 percent of jobs still pay under $15.50 an hour.

In reality, median household incomes for low- and middle-class families have largely remained stagnant over the last forty years. And while the the economy is improving, there is no evidence that low- and middle-class families are seeing the income improvement they desperately need.

“Best economy ever”?

Not even close.

Jud Lounsbury is a political writer based in Madison, Wisconsin and a frequent contributor to The Progressive. He also blogs at uppitywis.org and you can find him on Twitter @judlounsbury.